It's a story most Portuguese national team observers have come to know well over the last few years. A squad filled with talent but once again underachieving in qualifying for a major tournament. Coming up second best to Denmark in qualifying for both the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012, Portugal would come through victorious against Bosnia-Herzegovina in the playoffs on both occasions to reach both tournaments. Having drawn Northern Ireland at home, Isreal away and losing to Russia away, the playoffs look likely once again for this Portuguese side but can they even reach that target this time around? A loss to Russia on Friday would put that severely in doubt.
With 11 points through 6 games, Portugal is currently tied with Israel in points but below them in the standings because of goal difference. Russia sits in first with 12 points but with two less games played than both Portugal and Israel. Based on current standings neither Portugal or Israel would make the playoff round as they sit as the ninth best second place team with only the top eight making the playoff round.
Lack Of Finish And Defensive Frailties
While the lack of offensive production from the forward spot in particular is nothing new for a national team that has lacked a top class striker for some time now, the defensive problems during the campaign have been unexpected. After a formidable defensive job at Euro 2012, where they allowed more than one goal just once, the team allowed three goals away in Isreal and has only been able to keep clean sheets against the bottom dwellers of the group in Azerbaijan and Luxembourg. Having accumulated too many yellow cards, centre-back Pepe will be unavailable for the game against Russia which means one of Valencia's Ricardo Costa or Zenit St Petersburg's Luis Neto will partner Bruno Alves in central defence. Considering his knowledge and experience of playing against the majority of the Russian squad in the Russian doemstic league, Luis Neto is likely to draw the assignment. Fabio Coentrao and Joao Periera should start at their usual left back and right back slots respectively.
While Joao Moutinho is a nailed on starter in central midfield, the other two spots in Paulo Bento's usual 4-3-3 midfield are up for debate. The Portuguese manager has usually opted for Fenerbache's Raul Meireles and Dynamo Kyiv's Miguel Veloso, neither player however has been in tantalizing form of late. Receiving his first call up young Sporting starlet Andre Santos may push for time while Paulo Machado, Custodio, Ruben Amorim and Ruben Micael are available off the bench. While usually playing on the wing for Portugal, Danny may also be an option in the midfield if more of a creative force is needed.
With only one goal during this campaign, Portugal certainly needs more from talisman Cristiano Ronaldo. The Russian focus will likely be on stopping the superstar which should allow space for other members of the squad to have opportunities. On they other flank, Paulo Bento has a decision on his hands. When healthy Manchester United winger Nani has been a locked in starter but with a sub-par year at United and battling injury problems he may have to settle for a place on the bench. Wolfsburg's Vieirinha was a revelation during the last few international fixtures and may have done enough to keep his starting spot.
At forward, Helder Postiga will likely start once again, the Real Zaragoza forward has a decent scoring record for the national team but his lack of pace and his wastefulness in front of net make him a very polarizing figure and a difficult one to watch. Deportivo forward Nelson Oliviera looked destined to be the future of the position for the national team but has not shown much improvement this year at all. Besiktas forward Hugo Almeida was injured for much of the season but did manage an impressive 9 goals in 11 games this season for the club and is another option off the bench.
Fabio Capello's Russian side has been solid through qualifying and has yet to concede a goal through four games. Goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev has been superb and the Portuguese attack will have to be at it's best to beat him on the day. An away draw for Russia would suit them just fine so expect them to sit back and soak in Portuguese pressure early. A draw for Portugal wouldn't be the final nail in their coffin but it would certainly put them on the brink with just three games remaining.
Predicted Portugal Starting XI: Rui Patricio, Fabio Coentrao, Bruno Alves, Luis Neto, Joao Periera, Joao Moutinho, Miguel Veloso, Raul Meireles, Cristiano Ronaldo, Vieirinha, Helder Postiga
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